Trump More Likely to Pardon Jan. 6 Protestors Over Ulbricht

According to bettors on Polymarket, there is a higher likelihood that Donald Trump would pardon the January 6 protestors compared to Ross Ulbricht, the founder of Silk Road, if he were to return to the White House. The current odds show an 86% chance for the protestors and a 78% chance for Ulbricht.

Trump's Stance on January 6 Protestors

Trump has publicly maintained that the individuals involved in the January 6 protests are patriots who were unfairly targeted by a biased justice system. He claims this reflects a broader "two systems of justice" approach against his supporters, aligning his own legal challenges with those faced by the protestors.

Framing of January 6 Events

Trump has characterized the events of January 6 as a "day of love," suggesting that his supporters were merely reacting to what he describes as a "rigged" election. His rhetoric positions these protestors as victims of political persecution.

Trump’s Commitment to Ross Ulbricht

On the campaign trail, Trump has expressed intentions to commute Ross Ulbricht's sentence to time served, which differs from a full pardon. He has also promised to pardon January 6 defendants if re-elected, framing these actions as part of his commitment to countering government overreach and advocating for personal freedoms.

Support for Ulbricht’s Release

Trump's pledge to free Ulbricht at the Libertarian National Convention was met with enthusiasm from attendees. While he did not elaborate on his reasoning, many believe Ulbricht's life sentence for non-violent offenses related to Silk Road is excessively harsh, especially in light of its role in showcasing Bitcoin's potential.

Campaign for Ulbricht’s Freedom

Ulbricht's mother is actively campaigning for his release, arguing that his sentence may violate the Eighth Amendment's prohibition against cruel and unusual punishment. She highlights discrepancies in sentencing compared to other individuals involved with Silk Road.

Clarification on Pardon Terms

It is important to note that while the Polymarket contract refers specifically to a pardon, Trump has not made a similar promise for Ulbricht as he has for the January 6 protestors. The distinction in terminology could lead to disputes regarding the contract's fulfillment, particularly if Trump were to act on his intentions.

Other Pardon Speculations

In addition to these two groups, bettors are estimating a 14% chance that Trump might pardon himself and a 6% chance for Sam Bankman-Fried.